Plaza Colonia vs CA River Plate — Primera División - Apertura 2026
Primera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 5Parque Cincuentenario Juan Gaspar PrandiMatch Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 52+ matches
Plaza Colonia42%
CA River Plate30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Plaza Colonia creates 23% more chances
Season form · 52 home / 75 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Plaza Colonia ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Plaza Colonia at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches
CA River Plate away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 75 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Plaza Colonia attack 1.04 + CA River Plate defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25
CA River Plate attack 0.97 + Plaza Colonia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Plaza Colonia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Plaza Colonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Club Nacional
Penarol
Progreso
Fenix
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
Atenas
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston RiverCA River Plate
El Tanque Sisley
Atletico Torque
Rampla JuniorsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Plaza Colonia host CA River Plate on Thursday, 19 June 2025 at 20:30. The match is part of the Primera División - Apertura 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Plaza Colonia vs CA River Plate
Plaza Colonia and CA River Plate drew 0-0 in Primera División - Apertura on June 19, 2025.
The match was played at Parque Cincuentenario Juan Gaspar Prandi in Colonia del Sacramento.