CA River Plate 3–2 Plaza Colonia: Result & Stats

CA River Plate

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Plaza Colonia

I. Lopez 66'

J. Silva 39' (OG)

S. Otegui 30' (OG)

L. Carrizo 46'

H. Vergara 18'

7/11/2026

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 10Parque Federico Omar Saroldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

CA River Plate38%

×Draw24%

Plaza Colonia38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA River PlateExpected goals in this matchPlaza Colonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

CA River Plate

1.52

Plaza Colonia

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 43 away

1.75

creates per match

1.42

1.63

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

CA River Plate

1.75

Plaza Colonia

1.42

allows per match

CA River Plate

1.63

Plaza Colonia

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA River Plate+0.00on par

Plaza Colonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA River Plate ↓

Plaza Colonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

CA River Plate or draw

62%

CA River Plate or Plaza Colonia

76%

Draw or Plaza Colonia

62%

Winning margin

CA River Plate wins by 2+

18%

Plaza Colonia wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

CA River Plate 1+ goals

78%

CA River Plate 2+ goals

45%

CA River Plate 3+ goals

20%

Plaza Colonia 1+ goals

78%

Plaza Colonia 2+ goals

45%

Plaza Colonia 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

CA River Plate (draw refunded)

50%

Plaza Colonia (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA River Plate at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Plaza Colonia away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA River Plate attack 1.75 + Plaza Colonia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.52

Plaza Colonia attack 1.42 + CA River Plate defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CA River Plate scores more

38%

level

24%

Plaza Colonia scores more

38%

CA River Plate at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CA River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

H. Vergara

30'

S. OteguiOwn goal

39'

J. SilvaOwn goal

46'

L. Carrizo

66'

I. Lopez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff