Plauen 2–3 ZFC Meuselwitz: Result & Stats

Plauen

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

ZFC Meuselwitz

J. Martynets 90+4'

K. Akindele 86'

J. Pistol 45+2', 28'

T. Schmidt 36'

9/11/2024

League #85 · Nordost - 7Vogtlandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Plauen27%

×Draw24%

ZFC Meuselwitz49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlauenExpected goals in this matchZFC Meuselwitz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.75

Plauen

1.25

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.75

ZFC Meuselwitz creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

2.17

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Plauen

1.00

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.33

allows per match

Plauen

2.17

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plauen+0.00on par

ZFC Meuselwitz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plauen ↓

ZFC Meuselwitz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Plauen or draw

51%

Plauen or ZFC Meuselwitz

76%

Draw or ZFC Meuselwitz

73%

Winning margin

Plauen wins by 2+

11%

ZFC Meuselwitz wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Plauen 1+ goals

71%

Plauen 2+ goals

36%

Plauen 3+ goals

13%

ZFC Meuselwitz 1+ goals

83%

ZFC Meuselwitz 2+ goals

52%

ZFC Meuselwitz 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Plauen (draw refunded)

36%

ZFC Meuselwitz (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plauen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

ZFC Meuselwitz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plauen attack 1.00 + ZFC Meuselwitz defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

ZFC Meuselwitz attack 1.33 + Plauen defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Plauen scores more

27%

level

24%

ZFC Meuselwitz scores more

49%

ZFC Meuselwitz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ZFC Meuselwitz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

36'

45+2'

46'

46'

T. Fischer← D. Heinrich

46'

P. Kämpfer← S. Saftig

63'

D. Haubner← T. Schmidt

63'

L. Schmökel← T. Kießling

73'

K. Akindele← L. Werrmann

79'

86'

90+1'

90+1'

90+4'

Plauen

ZFC

36

Sedlak

31

▼

8

3

13

16

10

⚽

▼

Schmidt

6

▼

Bürger

21

Schätzle

22

▼

Hansch

18

⚽2

▼

12

6

28

4

▼

Heinrich

39

▼

Barth

10

Winter

14

▼

Saftig

8

Limmer

18

Will

9

⚽

Martynets

11

▼

Werrmann

Manager: K. Oswald

46'▲A. Morosow←▼T. Barth

46'▲T. Fischer←▼D. Heinrich

46'▲P. Kämpfer←▼S. Saftig

73'▲K. Akindele←▼L. Werrmann

Plauen substitutes

17Morosow25Fischer27Kämpfer19Akindele7Werner15Andreopoulos20Schulze

Manager: G. Leopold

63'▲D. Haubner←▼T. Schmidt

63'▲L. Schmökel←▼T. Kießling

79'▲L. Hoxha←▼F. Hansch

90+1'▲T. Rotfuß←▼J. Pistol

90+1'▲H. Wurr←▼L. Bürger

ZFC Meuselwitz substitutes

28Haubner33Schmökel9Hoxha11Rotfuß17Wurr1Fietz19Pauling