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Plauen vs ZFC Meuselwitz — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Plauen
Plauen
FT
1 – 2
ZFC Meuselwitz
ZFC Meuselwitz
6/30/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sternquell-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Plauen13%
×Draw14%
ZFC Meuselwitz73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plauen
1.40
ZFC Meuselwitz
3.30

ZFC Meuselwitz creates 136% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Plauen
1.40
ZFC Meuselwitz
2.60

allows per match

Plauen
4.00
ZFC Meuselwitz
1.40

finishing

Plauen+0.00on par
ZFC Meuselwitz+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plauen ↓

ZFC Meuselwitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Plauen or draw
27%
Plauen or ZFC Meuselwitz
86%
Draw or ZFC Meuselwitz
87%

Winning margin

Plauen wins by 2+
5%
ZFC Meuselwitz wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Plauen 1+ goals
75%
Plauen 2+ goals
41%
Plauen 3+ goals
17%
ZFC Meuselwitz 1+ goals
96%
ZFC Meuselwitz 2+ goals
83%
ZFC Meuselwitz 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Plauen (draw refunded)
15%
ZFC Meuselwitz (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plauen at home — creates 1.40, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

ZFC Meuselwitz away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plauen attack 1.40 + ZFC Meuselwitz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

ZFC Meuselwitz attack 2.60 + Plauen defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Plauen scores more
13%
level
14%
ZFC Meuselwitz scores more
73%

ZFC Meuselwitz at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "ZFC Meuselwitz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Plauen 1–2 ZFC Meuselwitz

ZFC Meuselwitz beat Plauen 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at Sternquell-Arena in Plauen.