Platges Calvià 0–1 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Platges Calvià

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Xesc Navalón 65' (pen)

4/20/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 30Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Platges Calvià28%

×Draw27%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Platges CalviàExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.42

Platges Calvià

1.05

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.42

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 35% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 44 away

1.52

creates per match

2.00

0.83

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Platges Calvià

1.52

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Platges Calvià

0.83

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platges Calvià+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platges Calvià ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Platges Calvià or draw

55%

Platges Calvià or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

73%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

72%

Winning margin

Platges Calvià wins by 2+

11%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals

65%

Platges Calvià 2+ goals

28%

Platges Calvià 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

76%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

41%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)

38%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Platges Calvià at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 113 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Platges Calvià attack 1.52 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.05

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Platges Calvià defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Platges Calvià scores more

28%

level

27%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

45%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Lluis Ballester← Marc Esteve

46'

Nacho Dosil← Pau

63'

Adri Marín← Juan Terrasa

63'

Airam López← Dani Sales

63'

Felipao← Álex Sánchez

65'

Xesc NavalónPenalty

70'

Angel Pacheco← Sergio Sevilla

74'

Juanca Alarcón← Marquitos

81'

Carlos García← Aitor Vergarachea

81'

Pablo Cortijo← Xesc Navalón

81'

Roberto Fernández← Nofre Riera

Platges

Ibiza

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Martinez

46'▲Lluis Ballester←▼Marc Esteve

46'▲Nacho Dosil←▼Pau

63'▲Adri Marín←▼Juan Terrasa

70'▲Angel Pacheco←▼Sergio Sevilla

81'▲Carlos García←▼Aitor Vergarachea

Platges Calvià substitutes

BallesterDosilMarínPachecoGarcía

Manager: Raúl Casañ

63'▲Airam López←▼Dani Sales

63'▲Felipao←▼Álex Sánchez

74'▲Juanca Alarcón←▼Marquitos

81'▲Pablo Cortijo←▼Xesc Navalón

81'▲Roberto Fernández←▼Nofre Riera

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

LópezFelipaoAlarcónCortijoFernández

Match Recap: Platges Calvià vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Platges Calvià 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 20, 2024.

Goals: Xesc Navalón (65' pen).

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf in Magaluf.

Platges Calvià vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Platges Calvià vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas