Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2–0 Platges Calvià

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Platges Calvià

Gurri 13' (OG)

Onofre Riera 7'

5/2/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas55%

×Draw26%

Platges Calvià19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchPlatges Calvià

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.78

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.54

Platges Calvià

0.78

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 97% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 112 away

2.14

creates per match

1.13

0.44

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Platges Calvià

1.13

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Platges Calvià

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Platges Calvià+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Platges Calvià →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

81%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Platges Calvià

74%

Draw or Platges Calvià

45%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

29%

Platges Calvià wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

79%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

45%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

20%

Platges Calvià 1+ goals

54%

Platges Calvià 2+ goals

18%

Platges Calvià 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

74%

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Platges Calvià away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.94 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Platges Calvià defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

Platges Calvià attack 1.13 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

55%

level

26%

Platges Calvià scores more

19%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Onofre Riera

13'

GurriOwn goal

46'

Juan Pajuelo← Gurri

52'

David Serrano← Moreno

52'

Gorka Ramón← Omar Álvarez

56'

Josemi← Sergio Sevilla

64'

Kike Fajarnes← G. Simeone

64'

Juan Carlos← Onofre Riera

64'

Marc Matas← David Valverde

78'

S. Riveron← Javi Ramos

78'

Carlos Pacheco← Marc Orell

86'

Colo← Jaume Villar

Ibiza

Platges

Barceló

▼

Ramos

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Riera

▼

Álvarez

▼

Simeone

Manager: Alberto Gallego

52'▲David Serrano←▼Moreno

52'▲Gorka Ramón←▼Omar Álvarez

64'▲Kike Fajarnes←▼G. Simeone

64'▲Juan Carlos←▼Onofre Riera

86'▲Colo←▼Jaume Villar

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

SerranoRamónFajarnesCarlosColo

Manager: Carlos Martinez

46'▲Juan Pajuelo←▼Gurri

56'▲Josemi←▼Sergio Sevilla

64'▲Marc Matas←▼David Valverde

78'▲S. Riveron←▼Javi Ramos

78'▲Carlos Pacheco←▼Marc Orell

Platges Calvià substitutes

PajueloJosemiMatasRiveronPacheco

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2–0 Platges Calvià

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Platges Calvià 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on May 2, 2021.

Goals: Onofre Riera (7'), Gurri (13' o.g.).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Can Misses in Ibiza.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Platges Calvià — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2–0 Platges Calvià