Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Platges Calvià vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
CANC
22:00
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 37Polideportivo Municipal de Magalluf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Platges Calvià28%
×Draw27%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platges Calvià
1.05
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
1.42

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 35% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 44 away

creates per match

Platges Calvià
1.52
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
2.00

allows per match

Platges Calvià
0.83
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
0.59

finishing

Platges Calvià+0.00on par
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platges Calvià ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Platges Calvià or draw
55%
Platges Calvià or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
73%
Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
72%

Winning margin

Platges Calvià wins by 2+
11%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals
65%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
28%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
9%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals
76%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals
41%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
38%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platges Calvià at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 113 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platges Calvià attack 1.52 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.05

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Platges Calvià defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Platges Calvià scores more
28%
level
27%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more
45%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Platges Calvià face Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 returns with Platges Calvià hosting Ibiza Islas Pitiusas. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Platges Calvià host Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at Polideportivo Municipal de Magalluf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.