Platense 1–2 Patronato: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Patronato

H. Canteros 79'

N. Castro 72'

L. Mosevich 44'

3/12/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 6Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Platense46%

×Draw28%

Patronato26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchPatronato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.89

Platense

1.30

Patronato

0.89

Platense creates 46% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 69 away

0.91

creates per match

0.83

0.95

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Platense

0.91

Patronato

0.83

allows per match

Platense

0.95

Patronato

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platense+0.00on par

Patronato+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Patronato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Platense or draw

74%

Platense or Patronato

72%

Draw or Patronato

54%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

21%

Patronato wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

73%

Platense 2+ goals

37%

Platense 3+ goals

14%

Patronato 1+ goals

59%

Patronato 2+ goals

22%

Patronato 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

64%

Patronato (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.95 · 91 matches

Patronato away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.70 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 0.91 + Patronato defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.30

Patronato attack 0.83 + Platense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Platense scores more

46%

level

28%

Patronato scores more

26%

Platense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

N. Castro

Patronato · M

8.2

Match Events

8'

30'

42'

44'

46'

R. Contreras← F. Gonzales

53'

Gonzalo Bergessio

63'

N. Bertolo← N. Delgadillo

63'

M. Bogado← I. Gómez

64'

F. Leys← F. Vázquez

65'

Gabriel Gudiño

71'

H. Canteros← J. Pignani

71'

M. Ortiz← D. García

71'

T. Banega← S. Medina

72'

N. Castro

79'

H. Canteros↳ I. Schor

80'

Nicolás Bertolo

83'

Nicolás Morgantini

85'

B. Mansilla← N. Morgantini

85'

J. Herrera← L. Barrios

85'

L. Geminiani← G. Gudiño

87'

Nicolás Castro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatensePatronato

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots8

8Corners2

11Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots8

3On Target2

7Off Target6

4Blocked0

10Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

397Total Passes322

274Accurate Passes198

69%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0