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Platense vs Patronato — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Platense
Platense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Patronato
Patronato
10/2/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Platense46%
×Draw28%
Patronato26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.30
Patronato
0.89

Platense creates 46% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 69 away

creates per match

Platense
0.91
Patronato
0.83

allows per match

Platense
0.95
Patronato
1.70

finishing

Platense+0.00on par
Patronato+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Patronato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Platense or draw
74%
Platense or Patronato
72%
Draw or Patronato
54%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
21%
Patronato wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
73%
Platense 2+ goals
37%
Platense 3+ goals
14%
Patronato 1+ goals
59%
Patronato 2+ goals
22%
Patronato 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
64%
Patronato (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.95 · 91 matches

Patronato away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.70 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 0.91 + Patronato defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.30

Patronato attack 0.83 + Platense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Platense scores more
46%
level
28%
Patronato scores more
26%

Platense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
M. IbáñezPatronatoPatronato · G
8.5

Match Events

17'
Augusto Schott
41'
Facundo Cardozo
62'
F. Russo← P. Gerzel
62'
M. Tissera← F. Curuchet
71'
Brian Mansilla
71'
N. Delgadillo← M. Pardo
72'
T. Palacios← F. Baldassarra
82'
N. Franco← S. Sosa
85'
T. Sandoval← B. Mansilla
88'
L. Kruspzky← F. Cobos
89'
G. Gudiño← M. Garay

Possession

58%Platense

Shots

11Platense

Pass accuracy

53%Platense

Statistics

PlatensePatronato
Overview
58%Possession42%
11Total Shots12
8Corners4
11Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots12
7On Target1
2Off Target8
2Blocked3
7Inside Box6
4Outside Box6
Passing
58%Possession42%
416Total Passes292
292Accurate Passes179
70%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
11Fouls14
3Yellow Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Platense vs Patronato

Platense and Patronato drew 0-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 2, 2021.

Platense controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.