Patronato 1–0 Platense: Result & Stats

Patronato

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Platense

C. Quintana 67'

9/9/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 18Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Patronato39%

×Draw29%

Platense31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PatronatoExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.01

Patronato

1.17

Platense

1.01

Patronato creates 16% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 93 away

1.09

creates per match

0.90

1.11

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Patronato

1.09

Platense

0.90

allows per match

Patronato

1.11

Platense

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Patronato+0.00on par

Platense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patronato ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Patronato or draw

69%

Patronato or Platense

71%

Draw or Platense

61%

Winning margin

Patronato wins by 2+

17%

Platense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Patronato 1+ goals

69%

Patronato 2+ goals

33%

Patronato 3+ goals

11%

Platense 1+ goals

64%

Platense 2+ goals

27%

Platense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Patronato (draw refunded)

56%

Platense (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patronato at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Platense away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patronato attack 1.09 + Platense defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Platense attack 0.90 + Patronato defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Patronato scores more

39%

level

29%

Platense scores more

31%

Patronato at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Patronato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. Quintana

Patronato · D

7.6

Match Events

24'

Carlos Quintana

39'

Lucas KruspzkyCard upgrade

40'

Marcelo Estigarribia

41'

Nicolás Castro

46'

A. Rodríguez← N. Castro

46'

H. Tijanovich← R. González

52'

53'

55'

55'

56'

I. Schor← R. Contreras

63'

Haibrany Ruiz Diaz

66'

M. Pardo← T. Banega

67'

C. Quintana↳ J. Acevedo

76'

S. Guerrero← V. Taborda

77'

N. Delgadillo← N. Morgantini

86'

J. Barinaga← J. Valdez

90+3'

90+4'

90+4'

90+3'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PatronatoPlatense

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots9

9Corners4

22Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots9

2On Target4

5Off Target3

4Blocked2

3Inside Box7

8Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

265Total Passes321

157Accurate Passes227

59%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

22Fouls12

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

1Offsides4

Liga Profesional Argentina: Patronato 1–0 Platense

Patronato beat Platense 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 9, 2022.

Goals: C. Quintana (67').

Platense controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella in Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos.

Patronato vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Patronato 1–0 Platense