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Platense vs Huracan — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Platense
Platense
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Huracan
Huracan
B. Mansilla 84'
M. Tissera 51', 45', 15' (pen)
J. Moya 89'
R. Cabral 30'
11/30/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 23Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Platense41%
×Draw33%
Huracan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.02
Huracan
0.77

Platense creates 32% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Platense
1.01
Huracan
0.86

allows per match

Platense
0.68
Huracan
1.03

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less
Huracan+0.25scores more

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Huracan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Platense or draw
73%
Platense or Huracan
67%
Draw or Huracan
59%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
16%
Huracan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
64%
Platense 2+ goals
27%
Platense 3+ goals
8%
Huracan 1+ goals
54%
Huracan 2+ goals
18%
Huracan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
60%
Huracan (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Huracan away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.03 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Huracan defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Huracan attack 0.86 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Platense scores more
41%
level
33%
Huracan scores more
27%

Platense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. TisseraPlatensePlatense · F
9.2

Match Events

15'
M. TisseraPenalty
30'
R. Cabral↳ J. Acevedo
45'
M. Tissera↳ N. Iribarren
51'
M. Tissera↳ A. Schott
59'
N. Silva← J. Acevedo
59'
M. Cóccaro← J. Candia
65'
M. Bogado← N. Bertolo
65'
I. Schor← F. Curuchet
74'
T. Sandoval← M. Tissera
74'
L. Vera← R. Cabral
84'
B. Mansilla← H. Tijanovich
84'
F. Baldassarra← I. Gómez
84'
B. Mansilla↳ I. Schor
86'
R. Lozano← I. Quílez
89'
J. Moya↳ C. Ibáñez

Possession

35%Platense

Shots

12Platense

Pass accuracy

47%Platense

Statistics

PlatenseHuracan
Overview
35%Possession65%
12Total Shots25
2Corners4
16Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots25
6On Target3
5Off Target12
1Blocked10
8Inside Box15
4Outside Box10
Passing
35%Possession65%
285Total Passes516
209Accurate Passes427
73%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls11
3Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Platense 4–2 Huracan

Platense beat Huracan 4-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 30, 2021.

Goals: M. Tissera (15' pen, 45', 51'), R. Cabral (30'), B. Mansilla (84'), J. Moya (89').

Huracan controlled possession (65%) and registered 25 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.