Huracan 1–0 Platense: Result & Stats

Huracan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Platense

E. Ramírez 78'

12/10/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 26Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Huracan48%

×Draw30%

Platense21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuracanExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.70

Huracan

1.21

Platense

0.70

Huracan creates 73% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

1.12

creates per match

0.75

0.64

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Huracan

1.12

Platense

0.75

allows per match

Huracan

0.64

Platense

1.29

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Huracan-0.27scores less

Platense+0.07on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Huracan or draw

79%

Huracan or Platense

70%

Draw or Platense

52%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+

22%

Platense wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals

70%

Huracan 2+ goals

34%

Huracan 3+ goals

12%

Platense 1+ goals

50%

Platense 2+ goals

16%

Platense 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)

69%

Platense (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.64 · 20 matches

Platense away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 1.12 + Platense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Platense attack 0.75 + Huracan defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Huracan scores more

48%

level

30%

Platense scores more

21%

Huracan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

F. Pereyra

Huracan · D

7.7

Match Events

46'

F. Alfonso← R. Cabral

56'

I. Schor← R. Martínez

62'

E. Ramírez← W. Mazzantti

68'

Fabio Pereyra

72'

F. Baldassarra← G. Mainero

72'

F. Zapiola Yamartino← F. Minerva

77'

Franco Baldassarra

78'

E. Ramírez

80'

Eric Ramírez

80'

V. Taborda← F. Juárez

81'

A. Lotti← L. Picco

82'

Federico Fattori

85'

H. Fértoli← R. Ábila

90'

A. Toledo← W. Alarcón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuracanPlatense

Overview

61%Possession39%

13Total Shots10

1.54Expected Goals (xG)0.29

4Corners3

10Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots10

2On Target1

9Off Target5

2Blocked4

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

405Total Passes259

300Accurate Passes152

74%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.22Goals Prevented-0.22

Discipline

10Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0