Huracan 2–0 Platense: Result & Stats

Huracan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Platense

M. Cóccaro 77'

F. Cristaldo 45+1' (pen)

10/19/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 26Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Huracan47%

×Draw31%

Platense22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuracanExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.69

Huracan

1.17

Platense

0.69

Huracan creates 70% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

1.12

creates per match

0.73

0.64

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Huracan

1.12

Platense

0.73

allows per match

Huracan

0.64

Platense

1.21

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Huracan-0.27scores less

Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Huracan or draw

78%

Huracan or Platense

69%

Draw or Platense

53%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+

21%

Platense wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals

69%

Huracan 2+ goals

33%

Huracan 3+ goals

11%

Platense 1+ goals

50%

Platense 2+ goals

15%

Platense 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)

69%

Platense (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.64 · 20 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 1.12 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Platense attack 0.73 + Huracan defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Huracan scores more

47%

level

31%

Platense scores more

22%

Huracan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Cristaldo

Huracan · M

8.2

Match Events

5'

24'

32'

42'

44'

45+1'

F. CristaldoPenalty

46'

G. Bergessio← M. Zárate

64'

R. Cabral← B. Garré

65'

J. Esquivel← J. Benítez

65'

A. Sabella← V. Taborda

77'

M. Cóccaro↳ F. Cristaldo

78'

S. Guerrero← F. Camargo

79'

E. Luna← M. Cóccaro

88'

M. Gómez← N. Cordero

88'

M. Cabrera← F. Cristaldo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuracanPlatense

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots10

7Corners4

8Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots10

5On Target2

4Off Target5

1Blocked3

8Inside Box5

2Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

330Total Passes414

230Accurate Passes299

70%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0