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Huracan vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Huracan
Huracan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Platense
Platenseadvanced
G. Mainero 63'
6/1/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - FinalEstadio Unico Madre de Ciudades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Huracan48%
×Draw30%
Platense21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracan
1.21
Platense
0.70

Huracan creates 73% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

creates per match

Huracan
1.12
Platense
0.75

allows per match

Huracan
0.64
Platense
1.29

finishing

Huracan-0.27scores less
Platense+0.07on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Huracan or draw
79%
Huracan or Platense
70%
Draw or Platense
52%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+
22%
Platense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals
70%
Huracan 2+ goals
34%
Huracan 3+ goals
12%
Platense 1+ goals
50%
Platense 2+ goals
16%
Platense 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)
69%
Platense (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.64 · 20 matches

Platense away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 1.12 + Platense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Platense attack 0.75 + Huracan defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Huracan scores more
48%
level
30%
Platense scores more
21%

Huracan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
J. CozzaniHuracanHuracan
7.7

Match Events

20'
Tomás Guidara
25'
Tomás Ariel Silva
46'
I. Schor← A. Lotti
46'
L. Sequeira← E. Ramirez
50'
E. Elizalde← T. Silva
58'
G. Alanis← A. Urzi
63'
G. Mainero
69'
Rodrigo Herrera
72'
H. De La Fuente← T. Guidara
72'
M. Tissera← L. Perez
74'
Matko Miljevic
83'
F. Zapiola← V. Taborda
83'
R. Abila← M. Pellegrino
86'
Juan Cozzani
86'
F. Juarez← R. Herrera
86'
N. Orsini← R. Martinez
89'
Guido Mainero
90+5'
Fernando Juárez

Possession

61%Huracan

Shots

10Huracan

Pass accuracy

56%Huracan

Statistics

HuracanPlatense
Overview
61%Possession39%
10Total Shots12
1Corners3
12Fouls21
Shots
10Total Shots12
3On Target3
4Off Target8
3Blocked1
6Inside Box6
4Outside Box6
Passing
61%Possession39%
370Total Passes240
277Accurate Passes140
75%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls21
2Yellow Cards5
3Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Huracan 0–1 Platense

Platense beat Huracan 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on June 1, 2025.

Goals: G. Mainero (63').

Huracan controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades in Santiago del Estero.