Platense 1–2 Colon Santa Fe: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Colon Santa Fe

J. Benítez 87'

R. Ábila 90'

R. González 73' (OG)

10/8/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 24Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Platense40%

×Draw30%

Colon Santa Fe30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchColon Santa Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.94

Platense

1.15

Colon Santa Fe

0.94

Platense creates 22% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 80 away

0.91

creates per match

0.94

0.95

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Platense

0.91

Colon Santa Fe

0.94

allows per match

Platense

0.95

Colon Santa Fe

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platense+0.00on par

Colon Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Colon Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Platense or draw

70%

Platense or Colon Santa Fe

70%

Draw or Colon Santa Fe

60%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

17%

Colon Santa Fe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

68%

Platense 2+ goals

32%

Platense 3+ goals

11%

Colon Santa Fe 1+ goals

61%

Colon Santa Fe 2+ goals

24%

Colon Santa Fe 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

58%

Colon Santa Fe (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.95 · 91 matches

Colon Santa Fe away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 0.91 + Colon Santa Fe defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

Colon Santa Fe attack 0.94 + Platense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Platense scores more

40%

level

30%

Colon Santa Fe scores more

30%

Platense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

92

J. Benítez

Platense · F

7.9

Match Events

19'

Leonel Picco

42'

Gian Nardelli

61'

Brian Farioli

62'

J. Álvarez← S. Pierotti

62'

F. Taborda← B. Farioli

62'

J. Sánchez← L. Picco

67'

Ramiro González

73'

R. GonzálezOwn goal

77'

G. Bergessio← V. Taborda

77'

C. Lattanzio← I. Schor

86'

S. Moreyra← C. Bernardi

87'

J. Benítez↳ G. Bergessio

90'

R. Ábila↳ B. Perlaza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseColon

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots8

7Corners4

7Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots8

2On Target3

4Off Target1

7Blocked4

8Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

377Total Passes351

285Accurate Passes250

76%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3