Pisa 2–1 Perugia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pisa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Perugia

M. Marin 58'

O. Moruțan 51'

T. Casasola 39' (pen)

2/24/2023

Serie B · Round 26Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Pisa45%

×Draw27%

Perugia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PisaExpected goals in this matchPerugia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.06

Pisa

1.40

Perugia

1.06

Pisa creates 32% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 77 away

1.48

creates per match

1.12

1.00

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Pisa

1.48

Perugia

1.12

allows per match

Pisa

1.00

Perugia

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par

Perugia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Perugia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pisa or draw

71%

Pisa or Perugia

73%

Draw or Perugia

55%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+

21%

Perugia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals

75%

Pisa 2+ goals

41%

Pisa 3+ goals

17%

Perugia 1+ goals

65%

Perugia 2+ goals

29%

Perugia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)

61%

Perugia (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 116 matches

Perugia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.48 + Perugia defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Perugia attack 1.12 + Pisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pisa scores more

45%

level

27%

Perugia scores more

29%

Pisa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

T. Casasola

Perugia · M

7.3

Match Events

-5'

Paolo Bartolomei

14'

M. Curado← C. DellOrco

31'

Hjörtur Hermannsson

36'

Marius Marin

39'

T. CasasolaPenalty

40'

Tiago Casasola

42'

A. Caracciolo← S. Moreo

43'

Pietro Beruatto

51'

O. Moruțan↳ E. Gliozzi

54'

Christian Kouan

58'

L. Capezzi← C. Kouan

58'

Ryder Matos← P. Bartolomei

58'

M. Marin↳ I. Touré

65'

Idrissa Touré

71'

G. Sibilli← Tomás Esteves

71'

A. Calabresi← O. Moruțan

76'

Yeferson Paz

82'

G. Masucci← E. Gliozzi

82'

A. De Vitis← Á. Nagy

83'

Marcos Curado

84'

S. Vulikić← S. Santoro

85'

E. Iannoni← A. Struna

90+4'

Gaetano Masucci

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PisaPerugia

Overview

51%Possession49%

7Total Shots9

6Corners3

17Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots9

4On Target2

1Off Target3

2Blocked4

4Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

322Total Passes301

207Accurate Passes188

64%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls14

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

2Offsides2

Serie B: Pisa 2–1 Perugia

Pisa beat Perugia 2-1 in Serie B on February 24, 2023.

Goals: T. Casasola (39' pen), O. Moruțan (51'), M. Marin (58').

Pisa controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.

Pisa vs Perugia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Pisa 2–1 Perugia