Pisa 1–1 Perugia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pisa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Perugia

D. Marsura 11'

M. De Luca 72' (pen)

11/30/2021

Serie B · Round 15Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Pisa45%

×Draw27%

Perugia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PisaExpected goals in this matchPerugia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.06

Pisa

1.40

Perugia

1.06

Pisa creates 32% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 77 away

1.48

creates per match

1.12

1.00

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Pisa

1.48

Perugia

1.12

allows per match

Pisa

1.00

Perugia

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par

Perugia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Perugia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pisa or draw

71%

Pisa or Perugia

73%

Draw or Perugia

55%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+

21%

Perugia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals

75%

Pisa 2+ goals

41%

Pisa 3+ goals

17%

Perugia 1+ goals

65%

Perugia 2+ goals

29%

Perugia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)

61%

Perugia (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 116 matches

Perugia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.48 + Perugia defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Perugia attack 1.12 + Pisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pisa scores more

45%

level

27%

Perugia scores more

29%

Pisa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

L. Chichizola

Perugia · G

7.9

Match Events

11'

D. Marsura↳ P. Beruatto

21'

22'

43'

55'

56'

S. Righetti← G. Ferrarini

57'

Gianmaria Zanandrea

65'

R. Gucher← D. Marsura

65'

Y. Cohen← G. Sibilli

71'

Filippo SgarbiPenalty awarded

72'

M. De LucaPenalty

75'

79'

79'

84'

85'

V. Vanbaleghem← Ryder Matos

89'

G. Masucci← I. Touré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PisaPerugia

Overview

54%Possession46%

21Total Shots12

5Corners3

15Fouls20

Shots

21Total Shots12

6On Target4

7Off Target5

8Blocked3

13Inside Box8

8Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

341Total Passes308

255Accurate Passes228

75%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls20

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2

Serie B: Pisa 1–1 Perugia

Pisa and Perugia drew 1-1 in Serie B on November 30, 2021.

Goals: D. Marsura (11'), M. De Luca (72' pen).

Pisa controlled possession (54%) and registered 21 shots to 12.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.

Pisa vs Perugia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Pisa 1–1 Perugia