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Pisa vs Perugia — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Perugia
Perugia
L. Vido 54'
2/29/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 26Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Pisa45%
×Draw27%
Perugia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.40
Perugia
1.06

Pisa creates 32% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 77 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.48
Perugia
1.12

allows per match

Pisa
1.00
Perugia
1.31

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Perugia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Perugia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
71%
Pisa or Perugia
73%
Draw or Perugia
55%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
21%
Perugia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
75%
Pisa 2+ goals
41%
Pisa 3+ goals
17%
Perugia 1+ goals
65%
Perugia 2+ goals
29%
Perugia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
61%
Perugia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 116 matches

Perugia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.48 + Perugia defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Perugia attack 1.12 + Pisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pisa scores more
45%
level
27%
Perugia scores more
29%

Pisa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
G. VicarioPerugiaPerugia · G
7.9

Match Events

41'
Simone Benedetti
47'
Vlad Dragomir
49'
Antonio Caracciolo
54'
L. Vido↳ M. Marin
57'
C. Capone← C. Buonaiuto
63'
F. Belli← S. Birindelli
66'
N. Siega← L. Vido
66'
D. Falcinelli← C. Kouan
74'
M. Fabbro← M. Marconi
83'
Michael Fabbro

Possession

44%Pisa

Shots

17Pisa

Pass accuracy

49%Pisa

Statistics

PisaPerugia
Overview
44%Possession56%
17Total Shots11
5Corners3
18Fouls20
Shots
17Total Shots11
7On Target0
8Off Target6
2Blocked5
9Inside Box8
8Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
308Total Passes379
189Accurate Passes241
61%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
18Fouls20
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
3Offsides2

Pisa 1 – 0 Perugia

Pisa beat Perugia 1-0 in Serie B on February 29, 2020.

Goals: L. Vido (54').

Perugia controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.