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Pisa vs Frosinone — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Frosinone
Frosinone
E. Gliozzi 1'
G. Caso 77'
G. Borrelli 52'
A. Rus 32' (OG)
5/6/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 36Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Pisa41%
×Draw27%
Frosinone32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.30
Frosinone
1.11

Pisa creates 17% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 116 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.51
Frosinone
1.20

allows per match

Pisa
1.02
Frosinone
1.09

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Frosinone+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Frosinone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
68%
Pisa or Frosinone
73%
Draw or Frosinone
59%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
18%
Frosinone wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
73%
Pisa 2+ goals
37%
Pisa 3+ goals
14%
Frosinone 1+ goals
67%
Frosinone 2+ goals
30%
Frosinone 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
56%
Frosinone (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.51 + Frosinone defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.30

Frosinone attack 1.20 + Pisa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pisa scores more
41%
level
27%
Frosinone scores more
32%

Pisa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90
G. BorrelliFrosinoneFrosinone · F
8.0

Match Events

1'
E. Gliozzi↳ G. Masucci
23'
Ádám Nagy
27'
Marcus Rohdén
32'
A. RusOwn goal
40'
A. Oliveri← G. Frabotta
45'
Pietro Beruatto
46'
Andrea Oliveri
52'
G. Borrelli↳ M. Rohdén
59'
S. Moreo← M. Gargiulo
60'
O. Moruțan← G. Masucci
62'
R. Insigne← J. Báez
63'
G. Caso← L. Garritano
72'
Tomás Esteves← H. Hermannsson
72'
E. Torregrossa← E. Gliozzi
74'
Daniel Boloca
77'
G. Caso↳ G. Borrelli
83'
M. Cotali← I. Monterisi
83'
K. Kujabi← M. Rohdén
87'
M. Tramoni← G. Sibilli

Possession

50%Pisa

Shots

19Pisa

Pass accuracy

50%Pisa

Statistics

PisaFrosinone
Overview
50%Possession50%
19Total Shots9
3Corners2
14Fouls12
Shots
19Total Shots9
7On Target4
8Off Target3
4Blocked2
13Inside Box7
6Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
396Total Passes415
304Accurate Passes319
77%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
14Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Serie B: Pisa 1–3 Frosinone

Frosinone beat Pisa 3-1 in Serie B on May 6, 2023.

Goals: E. Gliozzi (1'), A. Rus (32' o.g.), G. Borrelli (52'), G. Caso (77').

Pisa controlled possession (50%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.