Frosinone 0–0 Pisa: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pisa

10/27/2024

Serie B · Round 10Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Frosinone46%

×Draw26%

Pisa28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchPisa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.09

Frosinone

1.46

Pisa

1.09

Frosinone creates 34% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 115 away

1.55

creates per match

1.21

0.97

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Frosinone

1.55

Pisa

1.21

allows per match

Frosinone

0.97

Pisa

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.00on par

Pisa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Pisa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

72%

Frosinone or Pisa

74%

Draw or Pisa

54%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

22%

Pisa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

77%

Frosinone 2+ goals

43%

Frosinone 3+ goals

18%

Pisa 1+ goals

66%

Pisa 2+ goals

30%

Pisa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

62%

Pisa (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Pisa away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.55 + Pisa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.46

Pisa attack 1.21 + Frosinone defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Frosinone scores more

46%

level

26%

Pisa scores more

28%

Frosinone at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

79

G. Bracaglia

Frosinone · D

7.9

Match Events

5'

Alejandro Cichero

5'

Alejandro CicheroCard upgrade

32'

Adrian Rus

36'

Alexander Lind

45+3'

Riccardo Marchizza

46'

G. Kvernadze← F. Ghedjemis

46'

A. Calabresi← A. Rus

46'

N. Bonfanti← A. Lind

58'

S. Angori← P. Beruatto

58'

E. Vignato← M. Højholt

63'

Davide Biraschi

72'

L. Garritano← İ. Vural

81'

J. Mlakar← S. Moreo

86'

Samuele Angori

87'

K. Barcella← E. Darboe

87'

J. Oyono← A. Oyono

90+4'

Kevin Barcella

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinonePisa

Overview

32%Possession68%

11Total Shots20

4Corners13

11Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots20

3On Target4

6Off Target11

2Blocked5

8Inside Box14

3Outside Box6

Passing

32%Possession68%

227Total Passes485

142Accurate Passes423

63%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1