Frosinone 0–0 Pisa: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pisa

12/11/2022

Serie B · Round 17Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Frosinone46%

×Draw26%

Pisa28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchPisa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.09

Frosinone

1.46

Pisa

1.09

Frosinone creates 34% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 115 away

1.55

creates per match

1.21

0.97

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Frosinone

1.55

Pisa

1.21

allows per match

Frosinone

0.97

Pisa

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.00on par

Pisa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Pisa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

72%

Frosinone or Pisa

74%

Draw or Pisa

54%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

22%

Pisa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

77%

Frosinone 2+ goals

43%

Frosinone 3+ goals

18%

Pisa 1+ goals

66%

Pisa 2+ goals

30%

Pisa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

62%

Pisa (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Pisa away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.55 + Pisa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.46

Pisa attack 1.21 + Frosinone defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Frosinone scores more

46%

level

26%

Pisa scores more

28%

Frosinone at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

A. Calabresi

Pisa · D

7.9

Match Events

49'

Luca Garritano

54'

A. Oyono← L. Garritano

55'

G. Caso← M. Rohdén

55'

G. Frabotta← M. Cotali

69'

L. Moro← S. Mulattieri

69'

G. Sibilli← M. Tramoni

69'

G. Mastinu← M. Marin

72'

Pietro Beruatto

74'

R. Ciervo← R. Insigne

77'

E. Torregrossa← E. Gliozzi

85'

Ádám Nagy

85'

A. Ioniţă← I. Touré

86'

Tomás Esteves← A. Calabresi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinonePisa

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots10

1Corners7

9Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots10

2On Target0

5Off Target7

4Blocked3

8Inside Box4

3Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

498Total Passes339

397Accurate Passes249

80%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4