Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Hebar 1918 — First League 2026

Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
5/21/2024First LeagueFirst League · Relegation Round - 4Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad44%
×Draw26%
Hebar 191830%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.47
Hebar 1918
1.15

Pirin Blagoevgrad creates 28% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 54 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.13
Hebar 1918
0.91

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.38
Hebar 1918
1.81

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par
Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad ↓

Hebar 1918 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw
70%
Pirin Blagoevgrad or Hebar 1918
74%
Draw or Hebar 1918
56%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+
22%
Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals
77%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals
43%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals
18%
Hebar 1918 1+ goals
68%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
32%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)
60%
Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.81 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.13 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.47

Hebar 1918 attack 0.91 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more
44%
level
26%
Hebar 1918 scores more
30%

Pirin Blagoevgrad at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pirin Blagoevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Pirin Blagoevgrad 0–0 Hebar 1918

Pirin Blagoevgrad and Hebar 1918 drew 0-0 in First League on May 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Blagoevgrad.