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Hebar 1918 vs Pirin Blagoevgrad — First League 2026

Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
9/18/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hebar 191838%
×Draw29%
Pirin Blagoevgrad33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar 1918
1.13
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 51 away

creates per match

Hebar 1918
0.83
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.69

allows per match

Hebar 1918
1.40
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.43

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par
Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw
67%
Hebar 1918 or Pirin Blagoevgrad
71%
Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad
62%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
15%
Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals
68%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
31%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
11%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals
65%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals
28%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
53%
Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 0.83 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.13

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 0.69 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more
38%
level
29%
Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more
33%

Hebar 1918 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hebar 1918 vs Pirin Blagoevgrad

Pirin Blagoevgrad beat Hebar 1918 2-1 in First League on September 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Pazardzhik.