Hebar 1918 4–2 Pirin Blagoevgrad: Result & Stats

Hebar 1918

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Pirin Blagoevgrad

10/18/2025

Second League · Round 12Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Hebar 191844%

×Draw25%

Pirin Blagoevgrad30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hebar 1918Expected goals in this matchPirin Blagoevgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.21

Hebar 1918

1.52

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.21

Hebar 1918 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 76 away

1.75

creates per match

1.30

1.12

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Hebar 1918

1.75

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.30

allows per match

Hebar 1918

1.12

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw

70%

Hebar 1918 or Pirin Blagoevgrad

75%

Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad

56%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

22%

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

78%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

45%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

20%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals

70%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals

34%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

59%

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.12 · 59 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 1.75 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.52

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.30 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more

44%

level

25%

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more

30%

Hebar 1918 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff