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Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza — Ekstraklasa 2026

Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
E. Jirka 90'
A. Trubeha 60' (OG)
L. Sanca 51'
A. Dalmau 40'
A. Trubeha 20'
D. Hilbrycht 9'
9/27/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 10Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Piast Gliwice50%
×Draw24%
Nieciecza26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piast Gliwice
1.73
Nieciecza
1.19

Piast Gliwice creates 45% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 8 away

creates per match

Piast Gliwice
1.51
Nieciecza
1.39

allows per match

Piast Gliwice
1.00
Nieciecza
1.96

finishing

Piast Gliwice-0.29scores less
Nieciecza-0.26scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Gliwice ↓

Nieciecza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Piast Gliwice or draw
74%
Piast Gliwice or Nieciecza
76%
Draw or Nieciecza
50%

Winning margin

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
27%
Nieciecza wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
82%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
52%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
25%
Nieciecza 1+ goals
70%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
33%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
65%
Nieciecza (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Gliwice at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 36 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.96 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Gliwice attack 1.51 + Nieciecza defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.73

Nieciecza attack 1.39 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Piast Gliwice scores more
50%
level
24%
Nieciecza scores more
26%

Piast Gliwice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
E. JirkaPiast GliwicePiast Gliwice · M
9.0

Match Events

9'
D. Hilbrycht↳ M. Fassbender
20'
A. Trubeha↳ K. Kubica
29'
Igor Drapiński
32'
Andrzej Trubeha
40'
A. Dalmau
46'
E. Jirka← Q. Boisgard
46'
J. Jimenez← K. Zapolnik
50'
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
51'
L. Sanca↳ J. Felix
60'
R. Kurzawa← M. Fassbender
60'
S. Guerrero← A. Trubeha
60'
A. TrubehaOwn goal
69'
Adrian DalmauCard upgrade
70'
Adrian Dalmau
75'
L. Pitan← L. Sanca
75'
G. Barkovskiy← J. Lokilo
81'
O. Lesniak← G. Tomasiewicz
83'
W. Jakubik← R. Boboc
83'
I. Strzalek← D. Hilbrycht
85'
M. Chrapek← J. Felix
88'
Jesús Jiménez
90'
E. Jirka↳ P. Dziczek

Possession

48%Piast

Shots

20Piast

Pass accuracy

51%Piast

Statistics

PiastNieciecza
Overview
48%Possession52%
20Total Shots22
2Corners7
7Fouls15
Shots
20Total Shots22
7On Target7
6Off Target8
7Blocked7
13Inside Box16
7Outside Box6
Passing
48%Possession52%
368Total Passes385
306Accurate Passes311
83%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls15
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Ekstraklasa: Piast Gliwice 4–2 Nieciecza

Piast Gliwice beat Nieciecza 4-2 in Ekstraklasa on September 27, 2025.

Goals: D. Hilbrycht (9'), A. Trubeha (20', 60' o.g.), A. Dalmau (40'), L. Sanca (51'), E. Jirka (90').

Nieciecza controlled possession (52%) and registered 22 shots to 20.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Gliwice.