Nieciecza 3–2 Piast Gliwice: Result & Stats

Nieciecza

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Piast Gliwice

D. Hilbrycht 73'

K. Zapolnik 42'

J. Jimenez 15' (pen)

Juande 82'

A. Dalmau 69'

4/6/2026

Ekstraklasa · Round 27Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Nieciecza37%

×Draw24%

Piast Gliwice39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiecieczaExpected goals in this matchPiast Gliwice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.56

Nieciecza

1.51

Piast Gliwice

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 30 away

1.43

creates per match

1.37

1.74

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Nieciecza

1.43

Piast Gliwice

1.37

allows per match

Nieciecza

1.74

Piast Gliwice

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par

Piast Gliwice-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Piast Gliwice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw

61%

Nieciecza or Piast Gliwice

76%

Draw or Piast Gliwice

63%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+

18%

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals

78%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

44%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

19%

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

79%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

46%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

49%

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.74 · 7 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.43 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.51

Piast Gliwice attack 1.37 + Nieciecza defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nieciecza scores more

37%

level

24%

Piast Gliwice scores more

39%

Piast Gliwice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

D. Hilbrycht

Nieciecza · M

9.0

Match Events

13'

Kamil ZapolnikPenalty confirmed

14'

Jakub Lewicki

15'

J. JimenezPenalty

35'

42'

46'

46'

61'

M. Chrapek← G. Tomasiewicz

61'

A. Katsantonis← J. Felix

61'

A. Dalmau← G. Barkovskiy

68'

A. Trubeha← I. Strzalek

68'

I. Lima← O. Lesniak

69'

A. Dalmau↳ I. Drapinski

73'

Damian Hilbrycht

73'

D. Hilbrycht

78'

D. Biniek← J. Jimenez

79'

I. Durdov← K. Zapolnik

82'

85'

90+6'

90+4'

90+6'

90+5'

W. Jakubik← D. Hilbrycht

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiecieczaPiast

Overview

37%Possession63%

6Total Shots21

1.22Expected Goals (xG)1.89

3Corners9

10Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots21

5On Target7

1Off Target9

0Blocked5

4Inside Box14

2Outside Box7

Passing

37%Possession63%

291Total Passes473

186Accurate Passes363

64%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

-0.48Goals Prevented-0.48

Discipline

10Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides4

Ekstraklasa: Nieciecza 3–2 Piast Gliwice

Nieciecza beat Piast Gliwice 3-2 in Ekstraklasa on April 6, 2026.

Goals: J. Jimenez (15' pen), K. Zapolnik (42'), A. Dalmau (69'), D. Hilbrycht (73'), Juande (82').

Piast Gliwice controlled possession (63%) and registered 21 shots to 6.

The match was played at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza in Nieciecza.

Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ekstraklasa: Nieciecza 3–2 Piast Gliwice