Piast Gliwice 2–1 Nieciecza: Result & Stats

Piast Gliwice

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nieciecza

P. Sokołowski 71'

J. Czerwiński 52'

M. Mešanović 45+3'

11/26/2021

Ekstraklasa · Round 16Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Piast Gliwice50%

×Draw24%

Nieciecza26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Piast GliwiceExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.19

Piast Gliwice

1.73

Nieciecza

1.19

Piast Gliwice creates 45% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 8 away

1.51

creates per match

1.39

1.00

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Piast Gliwice

1.51

Nieciecza

1.39

allows per match

Piast Gliwice

1.00

Nieciecza

1.96

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Piast Gliwice-0.29scores less

Nieciecza-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Gliwice ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Piast Gliwice or draw

74%

Piast Gliwice or Nieciecza

76%

Draw or Nieciecza

50%

Winning margin

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

27%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

82%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

52%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

25%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

70%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

33%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

65%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Gliwice at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 36 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.96 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Gliwice attack 1.51 + Nieciecza defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.73

Nieciecza attack 1.39 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Piast Gliwice scores more

50%

level

24%

Nieciecza scores more

26%

Piast Gliwice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

P. Sokołowski

Piast Gliwice · M

7.9

Match Events

45'

Wiktor Biedrzycki

45+3'

M. Mešanović↳ A. Putivtsev

52'

J. Czerwiński↳ D. Kądzior

58'

Alberto Toril← N. Stojiljković

61'

62'

71'

77'

79'

S. Bonecki← S. Štefánik

79'

M. Grabowski← B. Kukułowicz

82'

Martin Zeman

84'

D. Steczyk← D. Kądzior

88'

Jakub Czerwiński

88'

Marcin Wasielewski

88'

Kacper Śpiewak

89'

J. Holúbek← A. Katranis

89'

F. Modelski← M. Wasielewski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PiastNieciecza

Overview

46%Possession54%

19Total Shots9

7Corners2

10Fouls18

Shots

19Total Shots9

6On Target1

7Off Target5

6Blocked3

12Inside Box5

7Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

309Total Passes369

224Accurate Passes270

72%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls18

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0