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Phu Dong vs Pho Hien — V.League 1 2019

Phu Dong
Phu Dong
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pho Hien
Pho Hien
4/18/2026V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 19Ninh Binh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Phu Dong59%
×Draw23%
Pho Hien19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phu Dong
1.85
Pho Hien
0.93

Phu Dong creates 99% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Phu Dong
1.77
Pho Hien
0.93

allows per match

Phu Dong
0.92
Pho Hien
1.93

finishing

Phu Dong+0.00on par
Pho Hien+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phu Dong ↓

Pho Hien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Phu Dong or draw
81%
Phu Dong or Pho Hien
77%
Draw or Pho Hien
41%

Winning margin

Phu Dong wins by 2+
34%
Pho Hien wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Phu Dong 1+ goals
84%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
55%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
28%
Pho Hien 1+ goals
61%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
24%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Phu Dong (draw refunded)
76%
Pho Hien (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phu Dong at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Pho Hien away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phu Dong attack 1.77 + Pho Hien defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.85

Pho Hien attack 0.93 + Phu Dong defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Phu Dong scores more
59%
level
23%
Pho Hien scores more
19%

Phu Dong at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Phu Dong 3–0 Pho Hien

Phu Dong beat Pho Hien 3-0 in V.League 1 on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Ninh Binh Stadium in Ninh Binh.