Pho Hien 1–3 Phu Dong: Result & Stats | V.League 1

Pho Hien

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Phu Dong

10/25/2025

V.League 1 · Round 8PVF Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pho Hien26%

×Draw22%

Phu Dong52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pho HienExpected goals in this matchPhu Dong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.93

Pho Hien

1.30

Phu Dong

1.93

Phu Dong creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.15

creates per match

2.31

1.54

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Pho Hien

1.15

Phu Dong

2.31

allows per match

Pho Hien

1.54

Phu Dong

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pho Hien+0.00on par

Phu Dong+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pho Hien ↓

Phu Dong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Pho Hien or draw

48%

Pho Hien or Phu Dong

78%

Draw or Phu Dong

74%

Winning margin

Pho Hien wins by 2+

11%

Phu Dong wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Pho Hien 1+ goals

73%

Pho Hien 2+ goals

37%

Pho Hien 3+ goals

14%

Phu Dong 1+ goals

85%

Phu Dong 2+ goals

57%

Phu Dong 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Pho Hien (draw refunded)

33%

Phu Dong (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pho Hien at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Phu Dong away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pho Hien attack 1.15 + Phu Dong defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Phu Dong attack 2.31 + Pho Hien defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pho Hien scores more

26%

level

22%

Phu Dong scores more

52%

Phu Dong at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff