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Pho Hien vs Phu Dong — V.League 2 2020

Pho Hien
Pho Hien
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Phu Dong
Phu Dong
11/19/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 5SVĐ Trung tâm đào tạo trẻ PVF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pho Hien46%
×Draw27%
Phu Dong26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pho Hien
1.37
Phu Dong
0.96

Pho Hien creates 43% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 43 away

creates per match

Pho Hien
1.72
Phu Dong
1.09

allows per match

Pho Hien
0.82
Phu Dong
1.02

finishing

Pho Hien+0.00on par
Phu Dong+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pho Hien ↓

Phu Dong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pho Hien or draw
74%
Pho Hien or Phu Dong
73%
Draw or Phu Dong
54%

Winning margin

Pho Hien wins by 2+
22%
Phu Dong wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pho Hien 1+ goals
75%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
40%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
16%
Phu Dong 1+ goals
62%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
25%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pho Hien (draw refunded)
64%
Phu Dong (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pho Hien at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 50 matches

Phu Dong away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pho Hien attack 1.72 + Phu Dong defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.37

Phu Dong attack 1.09 + Pho Hien defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pho Hien scores more
46%
level
27%
Phu Dong scores more
26%

Pho Hien at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Pho Hien 0–3 Phu Dong

Phu Dong beat Pho Hien 3-0 in V.League 2 on November 19, 2024.

The match was played at SVĐ Trung tâm đào tạo trẻ PVF in Liên Nghĩa.