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Phu Dong vs Pho Hien — V.League 2 2020

Phu Dong
Phu Dong
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pho Hien
Pho Hien
2/17/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 9Sân vận động Ninh Bình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Phu Dong30%
×Draw30%
Pho Hien39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phu Dong
0.92
Pho Hien
1.10

Pho Hien creates 20% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 52 away

creates per match

Phu Dong
1.21
Pho Hien
1.15

allows per match

Phu Dong
1.05
Pho Hien
0.62

finishing

Phu Dong+0.00on par
Pho Hien+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phu Dong ↓

Pho Hien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Phu Dong or draw
61%
Phu Dong or Pho Hien
70%
Draw or Pho Hien
70%

Winning margin

Phu Dong wins by 2+
11%
Pho Hien wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Phu Dong 1+ goals
60%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
23%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
7%
Pho Hien 1+ goals
67%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
30%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Phu Dong (draw refunded)
43%
Pho Hien (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phu Dong at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Pho Hien away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phu Dong attack 1.21 + Pho Hien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.92

Pho Hien attack 1.15 + Phu Dong defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Phu Dong scores more
30%
level
30%
Pho Hien scores more
39%

Pho Hien at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phu Dong vs Pho Hien

Phu Dong and Pho Hien drew 0-0 in V.League 2 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Ninh Bình in Ninh Bình.