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Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC — Major League Soccer 2026

Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
New York City FC
New York City FC
M. Uhre 40'
10/4/2025Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 33Subaru Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Philadelphia Union47%
×Draw25%
New York City FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union
1.60
New York City FC
1.18

Philadelphia Union creates 36% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 31 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union
1.78
New York City FC
1.25

allows per match

Philadelphia Union
1.11
New York City FC
1.42

finishing

Philadelphia Union-0.46scores less
New York City FC+0.04on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union ↓

New York City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union or draw
72%
Philadelphia Union or New York City FC
75%
Draw or New York City FC
53%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union wins by 2+
24%
New York City FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union 1+ goals
80%
Philadelphia Union 2+ goals
47%
Philadelphia Union 3+ goals
22%
New York City FC 1+ goals
69%
New York City FC 2+ goals
33%
New York City FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)
63%
New York City FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 25 matches

New York City FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union attack 1.78 + New York City FC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.60

New York City FC attack 1.25 + Philadelphia Union defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Philadelphia Union scores more
47%
level
25%
New York City FC scores more
28%

Philadelphia Union at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Philadelphia Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
K. WagnerPhiladelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union · D
8.2

Match Events

19'
Danley Jean Jacques
34'
Kevin O'Toole
36'
Jakob Glesnes
40'
M. Uhre↳ J. Lukic
46'
A. O'Neill← K. O'Toole
55'
Bruno Damiani
58'
T. Baribo← M. Uhre
59'
M. Ilenic← T. Gray
59'
A. Ojeda← A. Martinez
73'
J. Bueno← B. Damiani
78'
J. Fernandez← H. Wolf
81'
O. Mbaizo← M. Iloski
81'
A. Bedoya← I. Vassilev
87'
M. Carrizo← M. Moralez

Possession

39%Philadelphia

Shots

15Philadelphia

Pass accuracy

48%Philadelphia

Statistics

PhiladelphiaNew
Overview
39%Possession61%
15Total Shots7
0.90Expected Goals (xG)0.52
10Corners5
9Fouls14
Shots
15Total Shots7
5On Target2
7Off Target3
3Blocked2
10Inside Box4
5Outside Box3
Passing
39%Possession61%
322Total Passes504
244Accurate Passes415
76%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
-0.01Goals Prevented-0.01
Discipline
9Fouls14
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Philadelphia Union 1 – 0 New York City FC

Philadelphia Union beat New York City FC 1-0 in Major League Soccer on October 4, 2025.

Goals: M. Uhre (40').

New York City FC controlled possession (61%) and registered 7 shots to 15.

The match was played at Subaru Park in Chester.