New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union — Major League Soccer 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 27+ matches
New York City FC45%
Philadelphia Union31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
New York City FC creates 23% more chances
Season form · 34 home / 27 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
New York City FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
New York City FC at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches
Philadelphia Union away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.60 · 27 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
New York City FC attack 1.81 + Philadelphia Union defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.71
Philadelphia Union attack 1.51 + New York City FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
New York City FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "New York City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
New York City FC substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles FC
Real Salt Lake
FC Dallas
Seattle Sounders
Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
St. Louis City
Portland Timbers
San Diego
Colorado Rapids
Austin
Sporting Kansas City
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
FC CincinnatiNew York City FC
DC United
Columbus Crew
CF Montreal
Toronto FC
Orlando City SC
Atlanta United FCPhiladelphia UnionIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
New York City FC host Philadelphia Union on Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 23:30. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union
New York City FC beat Philadelphia Union 1-0 in Major League Soccer on April 12, 2025.
Goals: A. Martinez (55').
New York City FC controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 16.
The match was played at Citi Field in Flushing.