New York City FC 1–5 Philadelphia Union

New York City FC

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Philadelphia Union

A. Martínez 45+5'

J. Bueno 85'

J. Glesnes 73'

D. Gazdag 31'

M. Uhre 25'

T. Baribo 15'

9/18/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 42Yankee Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

New York City FC45%

×Draw24%

Philadelphia Union31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New York City FCExpected goals in this matchPhiladelphia Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.40

New York City FC

1.72

Philadelphia Union

1.40

New York City FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

1.82

creates per match

1.52

1.27

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

New York City FC

1.82

Philadelphia Union

1.52

allows per match

New York City FC

1.27

Philadelphia Union

1.61

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

New York City FC+0.24scores more

Philadelphia Union+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York City FC ↓

Philadelphia Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

New York City FC or draw

69%

New York City FC or Philadelphia Union

76%

Draw or Philadelphia Union

55%

Winning margin

New York City FC wins by 2+

24%

Philadelphia Union wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

New York City FC 1+ goals

82%

New York City FC 2+ goals

51%

New York City FC 3+ goals

25%

Philadelphia Union 1+ goals

75%

Philadelphia Union 2+ goals

41%

Philadelphia Union 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

New York City FC (draw refunded)

59%

Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York City FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Philadelphia Union away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.61 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York City FC attack 1.82 + Philadelphia Union defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.72

Philadelphia Union attack 1.52 + New York City FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

New York City FC scores more

45%

level

24%

Philadelphia Union scores more

31%

New York City FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "New York City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Glesnes

Philadelphia Union · D

8.7

Match Events

15'

T. Baribo↳ O. Mbaïzo

25'

M. Uhre↳ T. Baribo

31'

D. Gazdag

42'

Dániel Gazdag

45+5'

A. Martínez↳ K. O'Toole

46'

M. Moralez← A. Ojeda

46'

M. Ilenič← T. Gray

51'

Strahinja Tanasijević

58'

M. Bakrar← A. Martínez

58'

A. Perea← H. Wolf

67'

S. Adeniran← M. Uhre

71'

J. Mijatović← S. Tanasijević

73'

J. Glesnes↳ K. Wagner

79'

Q. Sullivan← T. Baribo

79'

J. Bueno← A. Bedoya

85'

J. Bueno↳ Q. Sullivan

90+3'

Kevin O'Toole

90'

C. Sullivan← D. Gazdag

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewPhiladelphia

Overview

64%Possession36%

26Total Shots12

2.97Expected Goals (xG)1.78

12Corners4

16Fouls10

Shots

26Total Shots12

9On Target7

9Off Target2

8Blocked3

18Inside Box9

8Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

604Total Passes341

517Accurate Passes249

86%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

1.72Goals Prevented1.72

Discipline

16Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2