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Rosenborg vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien 2026

Rosenborg
Rosenborg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lillestrom
Lillestrom
A. Konradsen 48'
C. Gytkjær 23'
F. Kippe 85'
5/16/2016EliteserienEliteserien · Round 11Lerkendal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Rosenborg48%
×Draw24%
Lillestrom28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosenborg
1.73
Lillestrom
1.27

Rosenborg creates 36% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rosenborg
1.76
Lillestrom
1.43

allows per match

Rosenborg
1.12
Lillestrom
1.71

finishing

Rosenborg+0.07on par
Lillestrom-0.36scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Lillestrom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw
72%
Rosenborg or Lillestrom
76%
Draw or Lillestrom
52%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+
26%
Lillestrom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals
82%
Rosenborg 2+ goals
52%
Rosenborg 3+ goals
25%
Lillestrom 1+ goals
72%
Lillestrom 2+ goals
36%
Lillestrom 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)
63%
Lillestrom (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.12 · 24 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.76 + Lillestrom defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lillestrom attack 1.43 + Rosenborg defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rosenborg scores more
48%
level
24%
Lillestrom scores more
28%

Rosenborg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
J. SvenssonRosenborgRosenborg · D
8.4

Match Events

23'
C. Gytkjær↳ F. Midtsjø
39'
Fredrik Midtsjø
48'
A. Konradsen↳ J. Svensson
72'
M. Ofkir← E. Knudtzon
81'
G. Thórarinsson← C. Gytkjær
85'
F. Kippe↳ M. Martin
90'
Hólmar Örn Eyjólfsson

Possession

53%Rosenborg

Shots

21Rosenborg

Pass accuracy

50%Rosenborg

Statistics

RosenborgLillestrom
Overview
53%Possession47%
21Total Shots10
9Corners6
9Fouls16
Shots
21Total Shots10
5On Target3
10Off Target4
6Blocked3
17Inside Box4
4Outside Box6
Passing
53%Possession47%
440Total Passes392
341Accurate Passes303
78%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls16
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
0Offsides4

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 2–1 Lillestrom

Rosenborg beat Lillestrom 2-1 in Eliteserien on May 16, 2016.

Goals: C. Gytkjær (23'), A. Konradsen (48'), F. Kippe (85').

Rosenborg controlled possession (53%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Lerkendal in Trondheim.