Pisa 0–0 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pisa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Frosinone

2/19/2017

Serie B · Round 26Arena Garibaldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Pisa41%

×Draw28%

Frosinone32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PisaExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.09

Pisa

1.28

Frosinone

1.09

Pisa creates 17% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 117 away

1.48

creates per match

1.19

1.00

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Pisa

1.48

Frosinone

1.19

allows per match

Pisa

1.00

Frosinone

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par

Frosinone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pisa or draw

68%

Pisa or Frosinone

72%

Draw or Frosinone

59%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+

18%

Frosinone wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals

72%

Pisa 2+ goals

37%

Pisa 3+ goals

14%

Frosinone 1+ goals

66%

Frosinone 2+ goals

30%

Frosinone 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)

56%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 116 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.08 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.48 + Frosinone defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.28

Frosinone attack 1.19 + Pisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pisa scores more

41%

level

28%

Frosinone scores more

32%

Pisa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

62'

66'

77'

79'

B. Mokulu Tembe← D. Ciofani

80'

A. Lazzari← R. Zammarini

83'

O. Kragl← D. Soddimo

85'

M. Ciofani← R. Fiamozzi

87'

L. Zonta← F. Angiulli

90'

Raffaele Maiello

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PisaFrosinone

Overview

52%Possession48%

5Total Shots7

1Corners6

22Fouls16

Shots

5Total Shots7

2On Target1

3Off Target6

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

22Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0