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PFC Sochi vs Torpedo Moskva — Cup 2019

PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
9/14/2022CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 2Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

PFC Sochi30%
×Draw23%
Torpedo Moskva47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PFC Sochi
1.40
Torpedo Moskva
1.81

Torpedo Moskva creates 29% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

PFC Sochi
1.42
Torpedo Moskva
1.38

allows per match

PFC Sochi
2.25
Torpedo Moskva
1.38

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw
53%
PFC Sochi or Torpedo Moskva
77%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
70%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+
13%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals
75%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
41%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
17%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
84%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
54%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
39%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.42 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.38 + PFC Sochi defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

PFC Sochi scores more
30%
level
23%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
47%

Torpedo Moskva at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: PFC Sochi 1–3 Torpedo Moskva

Torpedo Moskva beat PFC Sochi 3-1 in Cup on September 14, 2022.

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.