PFC Sochi 1–2 Krasnodar: Result & Stats

PFC Sochi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Krasnodar

12/5/2021

Premier League · Round 17Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

PFC Sochi37%

×Draw25%

Krasnodar38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PFC SochiExpected goals in this matchKrasnodar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.43

PFC Sochi

1.42

Krasnodar

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 119 away

1.69

creates per match

1.61

1.24

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

PFC Sochi

1.69

Krasnodar

1.61

allows per match

PFC Sochi

1.24

Krasnodar

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Krasnodar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw

62%

PFC Sochi or Krasnodar

75%

Draw or Krasnodar

63%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

17%

Krasnodar wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

76%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

41%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

17%

Krasnodar 1+ goals

76%

Krasnodar 2+ goals

42%

Krasnodar 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

50%

Krasnodar (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

Krasnodar away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.16 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.69 + Krasnodar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Krasnodar attack 1.61 + PFC Sochi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

PFC Sochi scores more

37%

level

25%

Krasnodar scores more

38%

Krasnodar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff