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FC Krasnodar vs FC Sochi — Premier League 2018

FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar
FT
5 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
S. Volkov 90' (OG)
N. Krivtsov 72'
Victor Sa 67'
E. Spertsyan 62', 49'
A. Zinkovskiy 65'
8/17/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Ozon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

FC Krasnodar56%
×Draw23%
FC Sochi21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Krasnodar
1.79
FC Sochi
1.01

FC Krasnodar creates 77% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 89 away

creates per match

FC Krasnodar
1.92
FC Sochi
1.08

allows per match

FC Krasnodar
0.93
FC Sochi
1.66

finishing

FC Krasnodar+0.00on par
FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Krasnodar ↓

FC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Krasnodar or draw
79%
FC Krasnodar or FC Sochi
77%
Draw or FC Sochi
44%

Winning margin

FC Krasnodar wins by 2+
31%
FC Sochi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Krasnodar 1+ goals
83%
FC Krasnodar 2+ goals
53%
FC Krasnodar 3+ goals
26%
FC Sochi 1+ goals
64%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
27%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Krasnodar (draw refunded)
72%
FC Sochi (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Krasnodar at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.93 · 120 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Krasnodar attack 1.92 + FC Sochi defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.79

FC Sochi attack 1.08 + FC Krasnodar defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Krasnodar scores more
56%
level
23%
FC Sochi scores more
21%

FC Krasnodar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. SpertsyanFC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar · M
10.0

Match Events

6'
Douglas Augusto
39'
Marcelo Alves
46'
G. Furtado← Joao Batxi
46'
N. Krivtsov← Douglas Augusto
46'
K. Zaika← A. Makarchuk
47'
Marcelo Alves
47'
Marcelo Alves
49'
E. Spertsyan
53'
N. Aberdin← M. Mukhin
62'
E. Spertsyan
65'
A. Zinkovskiy
67'
Victor Sa↳ G. Furtado
70'
S. Guarirapa← Z. Fedorov
72'
N. Krivtsov↳ E. Spertsyan
74'
G. Perrin← Victor Sa
77'
D. Vasiljev← K. Kravtsov
78'
K. Lenini← E. Spertsyan
78'
D. Kozlov← A. Chernikov
78'
R. Ezhov← M. Kramaric
90'
S. VolkovOwn goal

Possession

72%FC

Shots

23FC

Pass accuracy

57%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
72%Possession28%
23Total Shots3
8Corners1
11Fouls15
Shots
23Total Shots3
7On Target1
5Off Target2
11Blocked0
13Inside Box0
10Outside Box3
Passing
72%Possession28%
595Total Passes235
514Accurate Passes155
86%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Premier League: FC Krasnodar 5–1 FC Sochi

FC Krasnodar beat FC Sochi 5-1 in Premier League on August 17, 2025.

Goals: E. Spertsyan (49', 62'), A. Zinkovskiy (65'), Victor Sa (67'), N. Krivtsov (72'), S. Volkov (90' o.g.).

FC Krasnodar controlled possession (72%) and registered 23 shots to 3.

The match was played at Ozon Arena in Krasnodar.