Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Sochi vs FC Krasnodar — Cup 2019

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar
I. Saavedra 90'
M. Chirkov 78'
G. Perrin 85'
N. Krivtsov 50'
K. Lenini 20'
D. Kozlov 19'
8/27/2025CupCup · Group Stage - 3Fisht Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Sochi30%
×Draw23%
FC Krasnodar48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.42
FC Krasnodar
1.86

FC Krasnodar creates 31% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 21 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
1.42
FC Krasnodar
1.48

allows per match

FC Sochi
2.25
FC Krasnodar
1.43

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
FC Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

FC Krasnodar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
52%
FC Sochi or FC Krasnodar
77%
Draw or FC Krasnodar
70%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
13%
FC Krasnodar wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
76%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
41%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
17%
FC Krasnodar 1+ goals
84%
FC Krasnodar 2+ goals
55%
FC Krasnodar 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
38%
FC Krasnodar (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

FC Krasnodar away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.42 + FC Krasnodar defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

FC Krasnodar attack 1.48 + FC Sochi defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Sochi scores more
30%
level
23%
FC Krasnodar scores more
48%

FC Krasnodar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
D. Kozlov↳ Joao Batxi
20'
K. Lenini↳ Joao Batxi
46'
E. Spertsyan← A. Chernikov
50'
N. Krivtsov↳ Joao Batxi
56'
Victor Sa← G. Gonzalez
63'
G. Perrin← Joao Batxi
63'
Douglas Augusto← K. Lenini
63'
J. Cordoba← K. Mukailov
68'
V. Litvinov← Marcelo Alves
68'
S. Agbalaka← Y. Attiyat Allah
68'
A. Korneev← R. Ezhov
68'
I. Saavedra← D. Vasiljev
78'
M. Chirkov↳ R. Bart
85'
G. Perrin
90'
I. Saavedra

Statistics

FCFC
Discipline
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Cup: FC Sochi 2–4 FC Krasnodar

FC Krasnodar beat FC Sochi 4-2 in Cup on August 27, 2025.

Goals: D. Kozlov (19'), K. Lenini (20'), N. Krivtsov (50'), M. Chirkov (78'), G. Perrin (85'), I. Saavedra (90').

The match was played at Fisht Olympic Stadium in Sochi.