FC Krasnodar 3–0 FC Sochi: Result & Stats | Cup

FC Krasnodar

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Sochi

Joao Batxi 90'

J. Cordoba 86'

D. Kozlov 21'

10/23/2025

Cup · Group Stage - 6Ozon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FC Krasnodar54%

×Draw24%

FC Sochi22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC KrasnodarExpected goals in this matchFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.04

FC Krasnodar

1.75

FC Sochi

1.04

FC Krasnodar creates 68% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

1.88

creates per match

1.31

0.76

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

FC Krasnodar

1.88

FC Sochi

1.31

allows per match

FC Krasnodar

0.76

FC Sochi

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Krasnodar+0.00on par

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Krasnodar ↓

FC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Krasnodar or draw

78%

FC Krasnodar or FC Sochi

76%

Draw or FC Sochi

46%

Winning margin

FC Krasnodar wins by 2+

30%

FC Sochi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FC Krasnodar 1+ goals

83%

FC Krasnodar 2+ goals

52%

FC Krasnodar 3+ goals

25%

FC Sochi 1+ goals

65%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

28%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Krasnodar (draw refunded)

71%

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Krasnodar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Krasnodar attack 1.88 + FC Sochi defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.75

FC Sochi attack 1.31 + FC Krasnodar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Krasnodar scores more

54%

level

24%

FC Sochi scores more

22%

FC Krasnodar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

S. Agbalaka← A. Makarchuk

21'

D. Kozlov↳ N. Krivtsov

46'

Diego Costa← Tormena

46'

Joao Batxi← G. Furtado

46'

Douglas Augusto← A. Chernikov

46'

J. Cordoba← K. Lenini

46'

I. Saavedra← D. Vasiljev

46'

R. Bart← F. Kamano

46'

Z. Fedorov← M. Ignatov

60'

E. Spertsyan← N. Krivtsov

70'

A. Zinkovskiy← A. Korneev

86'

J. Cordoba↳ A. Khmarin

90'

Joao Batxi↳ J. Cordoba

Statistics

FCFC

Discipline

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