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PFC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula — Premier League 2018

PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
2/27/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

PFC Sochi53%
×Draw24%
Arsenal Tula23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PFC Sochi
1.72
Arsenal Tula
1.03

PFC Sochi creates 67% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 61 away

creates per match

PFC Sochi
1.69
Arsenal Tula
0.82

allows per match

PFC Sochi
1.24
Arsenal Tula
1.75

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw
77%
PFC Sochi or Arsenal Tula
76%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
47%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+
29%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals
82%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
51%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
25%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
64%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
28%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
70%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.75 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.69 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.72

Arsenal Tula attack 0.82 + PFC Sochi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

PFC Sochi scores more
53%
level
24%
Arsenal Tula scores more
23%

PFC Sochi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: PFC Sochi 4–0 Arsenal Tula

PFC Sochi beat Arsenal Tula 4-0 in Premier League on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.