Arsenal Tula 1–2 PFC Sochi: Result & Stats

Arsenal Tula

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

PFC Sochi

E. Kangwa 65'

M. Cassierra 79', 2'

10/31/2021

Premier League · Round 13Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Arsenal Tula45%

×Draw25%

PFC Sochi30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal TulaExpected goals in this matchPFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.20

Arsenal Tula

1.54

PFC Sochi

1.20

Arsenal Tula creates 28% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 89 away

1.43

creates per match

1.08

1.31

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Arsenal Tula

1.43

PFC Sochi

1.08

allows per match

Arsenal Tula

1.31

PFC Sochi

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

PFC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw

70%

Arsenal Tula or PFC Sochi

75%

Draw or PFC Sochi

55%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

23%

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

79%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

45%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

20%

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

70%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

34%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

60%

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 61 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.43 + PFC Sochi defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.54

PFC Sochi attack 1.08 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more

45%

level

25%

PFC Sochi scores more

30%

Arsenal Tula at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

K. Kangwa

Arsenal Tula · M

8.5

Match Events

2'

M. Cassierra↳ C. Noboa

57'

S. Tkachev← Z. Davitashvili

57'

E. Kangwa← D. Khlusevich

61'

Goran Čaušić

63'

N. Burmistrov← Joãozinho

65'

E. Kangwa↳ K. Kangwa

69'

V. Angban← C. Noboa

73'

E. Markov← E. Lutsenko

75'

Artur Yusupov

79'

M. Cassierra↳ I. Tsallagov

80'

K. Zaika← A. Yusupov

80'

M. Barsov← M. Cassierra

83'

A. Guliev← G. Čaušić

84'

Danila Prokhin

84'

R. Kambolov← G. Kostadinov

88'

Kirill Zaika

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalPFC

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots12

3Corners3

10Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots12

4On Target3

6Off Target4

3Blocked5

9Inside Box9

4Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

584Total Passes493

472Accurate Passes385

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2