Arsenal Tula 1–1 FC Sochi: Result & Stats

Arsenal Tula

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Sochi

M. Turishchev 45+1'

P. Meleshin 62'

10/13/2024

First League · Round 14Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Arsenal Tula34%

×Draw28%

FC Sochi38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal TulaExpected goals in this matchFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.22

Arsenal Tula

1.13

FC Sochi

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 38 away

1.17

creates per match

1.45

0.99

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Arsenal Tula

1.17

FC Sochi

1.45

allows per match

Arsenal Tula

0.99

FC Sochi

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

FC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw

62%

Arsenal Tula or FC Sochi

72%

Draw or FC Sochi

66%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

14%

FC Sochi wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

68%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

31%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

11%

FC Sochi 1+ goals

70%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

34%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

47%

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.17 + FC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

FC Sochi attack 1.45 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more

34%

level

28%

FC Sochi scores more

38%

FC Sochi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

26'

42'

45+1'

62'

E. Shevchenko← S. Tkachev

62'

P. Meleshin

69'

N. Razdorskikh← V. Levin

69'

I. Geloyan← M. Turishchev

73'

K. Nikitin← K. Zaika

79'

V. Litvinov← P. Maslov

79'

R. Magal← P. Meleshin

88'

G. Zhilkin← D. Lipovoy

Statistics

ArsenalFC

Discipline

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0