FC Sochi 5–1 Arsenal Tula: Result & Stats

FC Sochi

FT

5 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arsenal Tula

D. Martovoy 89', 87'

M. Kramarič 81' (pen)

R. Magal 75'

R. Pasevich 64'

A. Kalmykov 54'

5/3/2025

First League · Round 31Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Sochi51%

×Draw26%

Arsenal Tula23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SochiExpected goals in this matchArsenal Tula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.90

FC Sochi

1.50

Arsenal Tula

0.90

FC Sochi creates 67% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 68 away

1.84

creates per match

0.94

0.86

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

FC Sochi

1.84

Arsenal Tula

0.94

allows per match

FC Sochi

0.86

Arsenal Tula

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Arsenal Tula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw

77%

FC Sochi or Arsenal Tula

74%

Draw or Arsenal Tula

49%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+

26%

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals

78%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

44%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

19%

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

59%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

23%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

69%

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.84 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.50

Arsenal Tula attack 0.94 + FC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Sochi scores more

51%

level

26%

Arsenal Tula scores more

23%

FC Sochi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

46'

48'

54'

62'

63'

63'

M. Brnović← N. Razdorskikh

64'

R. Pasevich

68'

S. Terekhov← A. Makarchuk

68'

R. Magal← R. Bart

72'

Kirill Bolshakov

72'

Kirill Bolshakov

73'

D. Semenchuk← A. Kalmykov

75'

R. Magal

81'

M. KramaričPenalty

82'

P. Maslov← K. Zaika

84'

O. Kozhemyakin← M. Kramarič

84'

D. Martovoy← R. Pasevich

85'

K. Bogdanets← D. Lipovoy

86'

Artem Popov

87'

D. Martovoy

89'

D. Martovoy

Statistics

FCArsenal

Discipline

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1