PFC Sochi 2–1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz: Result & Stats

PFC Sochi

FT

2 – 1

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

6/25/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Trenirovochnaja Ploshhadka Adler 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

PFC Sochi49%

×Draw20%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PFC SochiExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.77

PFC Sochi

2.24

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.77

PFC Sochi creates 27% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

2.14

creates per match

1.83

1.71

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

PFC Sochi

2.14

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.83

allows per match

PFC Sochi

1.71

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw

69%

PFC Sochi or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

80%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

51%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

29%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

89%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

65%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

38%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

83%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

53%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

61%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 2.14 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.24

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.83 + PFC Sochi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

PFC Sochi scores more

49%

level

20%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

31%

PFC Sochi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff