Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs FC Sochi — First League 2018

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
N. Abdokov 29'
M. Kramarič 7'
9/7/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz37%
×Draw26%
FC Sochi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.33
FC Sochi
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 38 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.57
FC Sochi
1.45

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
FC Sochi
1.08

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par
FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

FC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw
63%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or FC Sochi
74%
Draw or FC Sochi
63%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
16%
FC Sochi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
74%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
38%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
15%
FC Sochi 1+ goals
74%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
39%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
50%
FC Sochi (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + FC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

FC Sochi attack 1.45 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
37%
level
26%
FC Sochi scores more
37%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
M. Kramarič
29'
N. Abdokov
65'
Aleksey Tataev
66'
S. Guarirapa← I. Safronov
72'
A. Zaseev← E. Gubiev
72'
T. Toboev← N. Abdokov
78'
N. Burmistrov← K. Nikitin
78'
Marcelo Alves← A. Makarchuk
79'
A. Bagaev← A. Butaev
79'
A. Khugaev← S. Makarov
79'
B. Khadartsev← T. Gagloev
86'
R. Magal← K. Zaika
90+3'
Williams Chimezie Oluebube

Statistics

AlaniyaFC
Discipline
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs FC Sochi

Alaniya Vladikavkaz and FC Sochi drew 1-1 in First League on September 7, 2024.

Goals: M. Kramarič (7'), N. Abdokov (29').

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.