FC Sochi 4–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz: Result & Stats

FC Sochi

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

P. Meleshin 90+4'

M. Kaynov 71'

A. Makarchuk 60'

N. Aberdin 32'

4/20/2025

First League · Round 29Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Sochi50%

×Draw25%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SochiExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.05

FC Sochi

1.58

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.05

FC Sochi creates 50% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 70 away

1.84

creates per match

1.24

0.86

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

FC Sochi

1.84

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

allows per match

FC Sochi

0.86

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw

75%

FC Sochi or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

75%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

50%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+

26%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals

79%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

47%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

21%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

65%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

28%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

66%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.84 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + FC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Sochi scores more

50%

level

25%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

25%

FC Sochi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

N. Aberdin

37'

Kirill Kravtsov

54'

M. Kaynov← K. Kravtsov

60'

A. Makarchuk

61'

T. Toboev← S. Gogniev

67'

Makar Chirkov

68'

P. Meleshin← V. Pisarskiy

68'

R. Pasevich← K. Nikitin

71'

M. Kaynov

72'

P. Maslov← K. Zaika

72'

O. Kozhemyakin← N. Aberdin

73'

L. Tavzarashvili← D. Chertkoev

73'

R. Daurov← V. Nafikov

78'

I. Dudaev← A. Kozyrev

78'

M. Dzestelov← A. Khugaev

82'

Ruslan Daurov

90+4'

P. Meleshin

Statistics

FCAlaniya

Discipline

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1