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Petrolul Ploiesti vs Dinamo Bucuresti — Liga I 2026

Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
Preview
16:30
Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti
7/19/2026Liga ILiga I · Round 1
41%
Dinamo Bucuresti
model favours
31%28%41%

Dinamo Bucuresti score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti31%
×Draw28%
Dinamo Bucuresti41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.05
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.27

Dinamo Bucuresti creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
0.84
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.27

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.26
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.27

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par
Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw
59%
Petrolul Ploiesti or Dinamo Bucuresti
72%
Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti
69%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
12%
Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
65%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
28%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
9%
Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
43%
Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.84 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.05

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.27 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
31%
level
28%
Dinamo Bucuresti scores more
41%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Petrolul Ploiesti’s matches
  • Dinamo Bucuresti fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)
  • 31% of Dinamo Bucuresti’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ploiesti
DDLWL
Bucuresti
LLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Petrolul Ploiesti host Dinamo Bucuresti

July 19, 2026: Petrolul Ploiesti take on Dinamo Bucuresti in Liga I. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.