Petrolul Ploiesti 0–1 Dinamo Bucuresti

Petrolul Ploiesti

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Bucuresti

A. Selmani 31'

11/24/2024

Liga I · Round 17Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti30%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Bucuresti42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petrolul PloiestiExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bucuresti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.25

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.01

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.25

Dinamo Bucuresti creates 24% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

0.80

creates per match

1.26

1.25

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.80

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.26

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.25

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw

58%

Petrolul Ploiesti or Dinamo Bucuresti

72%

Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti

70%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

11%

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

64%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

27%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

8%

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

71%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

42%

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.80 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.01

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.26 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

30%

level

28%

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

42%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

G. Milanov

Dinamo Bucuresti · F

8.2

Match Events

26'

Marian Huja

26'

Astrit Selmani

31'

A. Selmani↳ G. Milanov

46'

M. Rădulescu← D. Radu

46'

G. Grozav← S. Hanca

60'

A. Mateiu← T. Jyry

60'

C. Irobiso← H. Moussaki

65'

Georgi Milanov

65'

H. Abdallah← C. Cîrjan

79'

Y. Roche← Ricardinho

81'

A. Mărginean← G. Milanov

90'

R. Patriche← A. Selmani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PetrolulDinamo

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots16

4Corners5

18Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots16

3On Target7

5Off Target5

3Blocked4

8Inside Box11

3Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

408Total Passes508

294Accurate Passes409

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2